Thursday, 31 March 2016

Centurion SDW100 2015 - results analysis

The 2015 SDW100 was won by Peter Kaminsky in 16:50 with Joanna Turner the 204th and last across the line 29:58. I have done some basic analysis on the results to see what I can learn about the race. I hope to attempt the race for the first time this June so need all the help I can get. Fortunately Mark Perkins didn’t run this year as his 14:03 course record would have really messed up my graphs.
I hope to have a crack at a sub-24 result which based on sub-24s at the TP100 and A100 is possible but the SDW has quite a few more ups and downs…

My splits look to be roughly
22.6 miles – 4:00

35.1 miles – 6:40

54.0 miles – 11:00

69.8 miles – 15:15

83.3 miles – 19:15


I have also included a graph which you can use to get an idea of splits for other times. Look up your target time up on the x-axis and then follow a vertical line up and read off your splits on the y-axis. The website also has some great tools to use too with splits per mile calculators etc. I have picked out some points which are close to a sub-24 target time.
Good luck if you are running the race this year. Hopefully I will see you there!


Saturday, 12 March 2016

Centurion TP100 - results analysis

I was interested to see how my pacing at the Thames Path 100 compared with others. Did the average runner slow down more or less that I had? All these stats are purely based on the 2015 edition and every race is different... The race was fairly mild for the first 12 hours and then it rained for the last 16 hours. Generally firm under foot and could have been a lot muddier / hotter / colder / drier / more bacon sandwiches etc.

If you don't have time to go through the graphs, the headline stat is...

If you get to 51 miles in about 10 hours and you have a 50% chance of a 24 hour buckle and 75% chance of finishing.

After 30.5 miles, the 24 hour "par" is 5hrs 30. Those getting here after 6:30 hours probably didn't finish.

At Henley, the "par" is just over 10 hours. If you get here in about 11 hours, you are probably going to finish but have missed the 24 hour boat.
 There is a lot of variation around finishing times but if you take 10 runner rolling average (the red line) you can see a trend.
The other thing I looked at was how much do people slow down. A perfectly even pace would mean multiplying the 30.5 mile pace by 3.27 but the average is 4.3 times. The front of the field took 4.1 times their 30.5 mile time and the pack of the pack were more like 4.4-4.6x. The faster runner were also those that slowed down the least.

Where did people DNF (or refuse to continue)? The second half took the bulk of casualties with the 58 - 71 mile stretch getting the most action per mile. Mount Whitchurch is a brute. The hours of darkness take a lot of people. The last 9 miles had a similar rate to first section which I guess is down to the power of the finish line and also the sun was back up for most people.

My splits were 5:24 / 9:34 / 23:03 with a 4.26 multiplier. I am about as average as I could be. My race was the inspiration for this:

It is also worth looking at as they have some nifty stats for this and other Centurion races.

Sunday, 6 March 2016

Using Strava labs global heatmap to find places to run

Many people use Strava to record runs and bike rides. Strava has collated all the GPS data points to create an aggregate heat map to show where people train the most. This looks pretty cool but can also help find new places to run.

I was looking for routes for a run in London and the standard map doesn't look too promising. 

However when you add in the run heatmap, you can see a lot of main roads are popular - presumably with run commuters. However Wapping on the right side of the map also glows brightly. Sure enough, there is a nice footpath next to a canal away from traffic.

I was on a trip to New York staying near Wall Street and had a couple of hours free for a run. A quick look on Strava showed the West side of Manhattan by the Hudson River was very popular. There was a cycle path with plenty of space to run. I could probably have found this anyway but it saved me time finding a route. Towards the top of the map, you can see Central Park. It also highlights an athletic track in Brooklyn just below Greenpoint and North of Williamsburg.

I had a look round near where I live, This is an area with lots of great trails including the North Downs Way and the Vanguard Way. Now this is where you can be clever. A bit of spot the difference between the bike and run maps helps find some great trails. The bottom right had corner of the map shows the North Down Way which is a great trail and free of road cyclists and even mountain bikers. It also shows the Titsey Trail and a few other footpaths.

The circuit near the minus sign is  Kenley aerodrome which is popular with cyclists and runners so could be a good place of quiet road training. Parks show up very brightly in run mode - particularly if they host a Parkrun.

It isn't perfect though - the smooth line near the bottom of the map which is apparently popular with runners and not cyclists is the M25 Motorway which is out of bounds to both. Clearly a few runners has left their Strava running for the post run drive home...

Happy trail hunting!